17 August 2026

In 58% of Nordic M&A transaction processes, advisors report that sellers' valuation expectations are too high, a gap that averages 24% and breaks the deal in 32% of those cases. Deal activity is shifting too, with the share of transactions above €10 million rising to 30% as assignment volumes build for a second consecutive half-year.

These are among the key findings of the latest edition of the Dealsuite Nordic M&A Monitor, which tracks the Nordic mid-market every six months.

A Persistent Gap, Now Quantified

Dealsuite has flagged unrealistic seller expectations as the top reason deals collapse in the Nordic market for years. This edition is the first to measure the scale directly: how often it happens, how wide the gap runs, and how often it kills the deal.

Rather than walk away, advisors are increasingly structuring around the gap. Deferred payments and other forms of risk-sharing between buyer and seller are being used more often to keep transactions on track, according to Dealsuite's Deal Terms Report, a sign that the market is adapting to the gap rather than letting it routinely kill deals.

Floyd Plettenberg, CEO of Dealsuite, says the numbers finally put a figure on something advisors have felt for years: "A deal doesn't usually fall apart because a buyer walks away for no reason. It falls apart because the seller is anchored to a number the market won't pay. Now we have measured that gap, and how often it actually breaks a deal. This is the kind of transparency that avoids dealbreakers and helps close more deals."

Deal Mix Shifts Further Toward Larger Transactions

The composition of transactions moved further toward the top end of the market in H1-2026. The share of deals above €10 million rose from 26% to 30%, a four-percentage-point increase, while the €2.5 to €5 million segment fell sharply, from 32% to 24%. The €5 to €7.5 million segment also grew, up 1 percentage point, while the €7.5 to €10 million segment eased slightly, down 2 points. Deals below €2.5 million increased by 5 points to 25%.

Overall transaction volume grew: 37% of advisors reported an increase in completed deals compared to H2-2025, against 16% reporting a decline, with the remaining 47% unchanged.

Healthcare Draws Strongest Buyer Interest as Software Development Cools

Buyer interest strengthened broadly across the Nordic mid-market. The average number of interested parties per firm rose to 7.8 in H1-2026, up from 7.0 a year earlier, with most sectors seeing an increase. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals recorded the highest buyer interest of any sector, up 2.4 points to 12.5. IT Services also gained, up 0.9 to 10.3.

Software Development was the exception, falling from 12.4 to 9.7 interested parties, the largest decline of any sector.

Average EBITDA Multiple Holds at 5.4

Valuations across the Nordic mid-market were broadly stable, with the average EBITDA multiple unchanged at 5.4, one of four regions now sharing the highest regional average alongside DACH, UK&I and Southern Europe. Retail Trade recorded the lowest multiple in this edition at 3.8 (down 0.2), alongside Software Development and E-commerce & Webshops, both also down 0.2. On the upside, Business Services, Agri & Food, Construction & Engineering, and Automotive, Transportation & Logistics each gained 0.1. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals and Media & Communication held unchanged.

Company size remains a decisive factor in valuation: multiples for smaller businesses (€200,000 EBITDA) eased slightly to 3.6, while larger companies (€10 million EBITDA) rose to 7.2, widening the gap to 3.6 points and reflecting the so-called Small Firm Premium applied to compensate for the higher risk profile of smaller businesses.

Software Development Flips From Riser to Decliner as Confidence Builds

Looking ahead, sentiment continues to strengthen: 92% of advisors describe themselves as optimistic about H2-2026, up from the 88% recorded for H1-2026 in the previous edition. Looking back, 83% of advisors held a positive view of H1-2026, essentially in line with the 85% recorded for H2-2025, so retrospective sentiment has held firm even as the forward-looking outlook keeps improving.

Industrial & Manufacturing remains the most-cited sector for expected growth in H2-2026, a position it has now held for three consecutive editions, followed by Business Services and Construction & Engineering. Software Development is the notable mover on the downside: after featuring among the expected risers in the previous three editions, it now tops the list of expected decliners, ahead of Hospitality & Tourism and Retail Trade.

Taken together, the data point to a Nordic mid-market that keeps building momentum: a deal mix shifting further toward larger transactions, a valuation gap now measured for the first time, and a sector outlook increasingly shaped by how fast technology, not just economics, is reshaping buyer appetite.

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