Introduction

Thank you for your interest in the third edition of the M&A Monitor for Southern Europe by Dealsuite. This report consolidates research performed by Dealsuite, the leading tool for M&A transactions. It contains statistics and trends for the Southern European M&A mid-market (enterprises with a revenue between €1 million and €200 million) across Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece over the first half of 2026.

The aim of this study is to create periodic insights that improve the Southern European market's transparency and to serve as a benchmark for M&A professionals. We are convinced that sharing information within our network leads to an improved quality and volume of deals.

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I Transactions

Transaction volume increased in H1-2026

The number of transactions is a key indicator of dynamism in the SME M&A market. Advisors were asked how the number of completed transactions in the first half of 2026 compares to the second half of 2025.

Uncertainty is no longer the exception in the M&A market, but the norm. Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic unpredictability persisted through the first half of 2026. Advisors are responding with more creative deal structures: according to the Dealsuite M&A Deal Terms Report, deferred payments and other forms of risk-sharing between buyer and seller are being applied more frequently. Transaction volume reflects this resilience: 47% of advisors report an increase in H1-2026, extending the momentum built up over the past year.

I Transactions

Deal mix continues to shift toward larger transactions

The deal mix continues to shift toward larger transactions. The share of transactions valued at €10 million or more rose to 28% in H1-2026, up 3 percentage points from H2-2025. The €7.5–10 million segment saw the largest gain, up 5 points to 17%, while the €5–7.5 million and €2.5–5 million brackets both eased back. Overall, 8 percentage points more deals closed with a deal size above €7.5 million.

II Expected Sector Shifts

Business Services takes the top spot; Automotive, Transportation & Logistics tops the expected decliners

To understand expected developments, M&A advisors were asked in which sector they foresee the largest increase or decrease in deal activity in H2-2026. Business Services tops the list of sectors expected to see the largest increase in deal activity, followed by Industrial & Manufacturing and Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals. On the decline side, advisors most often point to Automotive, Transportation & Logistics, followed by Retail Trade and Media & Communication.

III Assignments

More assignments reported

An increase or decrease in assignments received by advisory firms gives insight into expected deal flow and market sentiment. 57% of advisors report an increase in assignments, while 34% report a similar volume. Only 9% report a decrease. This continues the growth in assignment volume seen in prior editions, suggesting the pipeline feeding into future transactions continues to expand.

IV Sector Multiples

Average EBITDA multiple holds at 5.4

EBITDA multiples are widely used as a benchmark for business valuation, providing an indication of what buyers are willing to pay in specific sectors. Since 2015, Dealsuite has tracked average EBITDA multiples per sector, based on enterprise value (EV). The average EBITDA multiple across sectors stands at 5.4, unchanged from H2-2025. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals (+0.2 to 7.7) and Industrial & Manufacturing (+0.2 to 5.3) posted the largest gains.

Spread in sector multiples reflects diversity of business models

A business valuation is inherently company-specific and depends on a wide range of factors, including growth prospects, profitability, market position, and risk profile. A multiple, on its own, does not constitute a complete valuation methodology, but it serves as a useful cross-check, particularly when assessing comparable transactions in the near term.

V Multiples in Relation to Company Size

Company size continues to drive valuation

Company size remains a key driver of valuation. Research shows that smaller companies carry a higher risk of not realising expected free cash flows (Damodaran, 2011; Grabowski & Pratt, 2013). This higher risk profile is corrected for through the so-called Small Firm Premium, which results in a lower valuation. As a result, EBITDA multiples for larger companies are structurally higher than for smaller companies. The gap in EBITDA multiple between companies with a normalised EBITDA of €200,000 and €10,000,000 now stands at 3.6 (4.0 versus 7.6).

For companies with an EBITDA below €200,000, we do not determine a multiple for

the following reasons:

• For small companies, the risk premium is very case and company specific.

• The normalised EBITDA of small companies is often unstable - it often fluctuates heavily in terms of percentages per year - and is therefore not a good unit of measurement on which to base the valuation.

• The value of small companies is largely dependent on the (future) potential of the company. In a small company with a lot of potential, the EBITDA in absolute terms can be increased or even multiplied relatively easily.

VI Cross-border Multiples

Regional valuations converge toward the European average

Regional differences in EBITDA multiples continue to narrow. In H1-2026, four regions, DACH, UK&I, the Nordics, and Southern Europe, stand at 5.4, two regions (France, CEE) sit at 5.3, and the Netherlands at 5.0. The spread across all seven regions is just 0.4. This convergence goes hand in hand with growing transparency in market and deal data. Despite this regional convergence, sector-specific valuations still vary considerably by region, forming a strong incentive for cross-border M&A.

VII Valuation Gap

Seller expectations run high in over half of processes

Previous Dealsuite research identified unrealistic seller valuation expectations as the leading cause of terminated deals. This edition of the Southern European M&A Monitor asked advisors directly how often they encounter this gap between seller expectations and realistic market value, how large it typically is, and how often it ultimately breaks a deal. In 53% of transaction processes, advisors report that the seller's value perception is too high. In these cases, the gap to realistic market value averages 26%. Importantly, this gap leads to a collapsed deal in 38% of these instances, meaning that in roughly three out of five cases where a valuation gap exists, it is successfully bridged during the process.

VIII Average Interest per Sector

Buyer interest holds steady, with notable shifts by sector

The average number of interested parties per listed company is a useful indicator of buyer appetite and competitive tension in a sale process. The average number of interested parties held steady at 8.4 across all sectors, unchanged from H1-2025. Interest varied considerably by sector, however. Industrial & Manufacturing saw the largest gain (+2.3 to 12.3), followed by Business Services (+1.5 to 9.2) and Automotive, Transportation & Logistics (+1.0 to 6.6). IT Services and Software Development remain the most sought-after sectors overall, at 14.3 and 13.7 interested parties respectively.

IX Retrospect

Sentiment holds firm heading into H2-2026

Advisors were asked to assess the M&A mid-market in H1-2026. Looking back, 85% of advisors assessed the past six months positively, against 15% holding a negative view.

X Outlook

Sentiment strengthens further heading into H2-2026

Looking ahead, 92% of advisors describe themselves as optimistic about H2-2026. That's a further improvement on the 84% recorded for H1-2026 in the last edition. Just 8% of advisors hold pessimistic views on the coming six months.

XI Method

The majority of M&A transactions take place in the mid-market. This M&A Monitor uses the definition of a mid-market company as having a revenue between €1 million and €200 million.

The survey that formed the basis for this M&A Monitor was sent to 422 M&A advisory firms active in the Southern European mid-market. Considering their combined input, they represent an essential part of the M&A mid-market in Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece. Out of the total of 422 advisory firms, we received 119 responses (28% response rate).

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Sources used:

• A total of 119 M&A advisory firms provided detailed input based on the transactions they advised on in H1-2026.

• Dealsuite deal database (2026)

• Dealsuite M&A Monitor research Q1-2015 t/m H2-2025

• Dealsuite. (2026). M&A mid-market trends report 2026.

• Dealsuite. (2025). European Deal Terms Report.

• Bain & Company. (2023, March 28). How companies got so good at M&A.

• Damodaran (2011). Equity Risk Premiums (ERP).

• Grabowski and Pratt (2013). Cost of Capital: Applications and Examples.

• Harding, D., & Rovit, S. (2004). Mastering the merger: Four critical decisions that make or break the deal. Harvard Business Press.

This research was conducted by Jelle Stuij and Roos Bijvoet. For further questions about this research, please contact Jelle Stuij.

For further information about Dealsuite, please contact Carla de Moel.